Denys Bohush and the "8 owls" analytical group
Ukraine, Kyiv, March 2023
Forecasting is still possible
Looking into the future and predicting events and scenarios in our time is a very thankless business. The forecasting of the attack on Ukraine and the possible indicators and parameters of this war were incorrectly predicted by the vast majority of analytical centers of the world. Old forecasting tools and incorrect evaluations of open and closed data have shown the limits of their capabilities. The current fascination with large databases and virtual tools has shown that it is impossible to measure the strength of the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian people with them and the possibilities of resistance and survival in the war. The long-standing fear of the Russian army ("the second army of the world") of the entire West, NATO, and the US army turned out to be based on Russian propaganda and Russian bluffs and fakes. In the real situation, in front of the strength of the Ukrainian army, the Russian troops turned out to be unprofessional, poorly trained, weak in every sense, with a pile of scrap metal in their hands. And they turned out to be criminals, marauders and rapists, not soldiers. The vaunted tanks, planes, helicopters, ships and missiles turned out to be not as effective in combat conditions as the Russians describe in the advertising brochures on the arms market.
But even in these conditions, forecasting is needed. It is necessary to develop one's approaches and methods of analysis in the new modern conditions of turbulence of events and changes.
Our new approach, I hope, will reveal some vision of future events and provide information for making certain decisions. In this article, I will not give a complete breakdown of each scenario and factors. But even in this form, I hope, you see a lot of useful information for thinking and planning decisions.
10 future scenarios for Ukraine
Events that will take place in the future will have very specific indicators. This is the border line between Ukraine and Russia, the economic, military and social status of Ukraine and Russia. The stability and ability of the country to survive in such conditions. The coalitions and allies that are formed and the level of cooperation and assistance are also important.
On the Russian side, we see various cooperation and assistance from Belarus, Iran, North Korea, China, etc. This cooperation affects the course of the war in different ways. Today, Russia has enough forces and means in such a regime as today to fight for another 2-3 years. But based on the catastrophically inefficient use of military resources, this indicator is at the level of 1-2 years.
Many Western countries, NATO countries and the Rammstein format work for Ukraine. Many countries, such as the USA, Great Britain, Poland, France, Germany, help in a bilateral format, simply coordinating the provision of military aid to Ukraine with partners. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not form an anti-Kremlin coalition, and has not put the economy on military rails. This war is of such intensity that only 4-5 million shells are needed for victory, not to mention more serious ammunition. Without its own production, Ukraine will depend more and more on the supply of Western weapons and ammunition.
The war turned into a strategy of exhausting military and economic resources, and therefore it is important which country will be able to recover as quickly as possible and produce weapons and ammunition.
10 possible scenarios for the end of the war
1. Stopping hostilities on today's borders. Truce.
The most favorable scenario for the Russian Federation. Russia needs this to accumulate resources and continue the war in 1-2 years.
2. Liberation of Ukrainian territories until February 23, 2022.
The most possible scenario for Ukraine in 2023. Forces and means are planned for this, both in Ukraine and in the collective West. The legal status of Donbass and Crimea remains uncertain. Russia will continue the war in 2-3 years.
3. Liberation of all Ukrainian territories, except Crimea.
The scenario is possible in 2023, but with the full support of Western countries. The strategy of reintegration of liberated temporarily occupied territories into the legal field of Ukraine is also important. Russia will continue the war in 2-3 years.
4. Liberation of all Ukrainian territories on the borders of 1991.
The scenario is conditionally possible in 2023, but with the full consolidation and support of Western countries, and the transfer of the country's economy to military lines. Construction of dozens of military underground plants in Ukraine. Full understanding of the reintegration of liberated temporarily occupied territories into the legal field of Ukraine and the training of personnel to maintain power in these regions. The words "reparations" and "tribunal" begin to sound.
5. Liberation of all Ukrainian territories and demilitarization of the Russian Federation bordering Ukraine.
The scenario is impossible in 2023. This requires an anti-Kremlin coalition or an alliance initiated by Ukraine. This is a scenario of capitulation of Russia and international pressure. Payment of reparations and reconstruction of destroyed cities and infrastructure. The change of power in the Russian Federation and the signing of relevant documents and the delivery of war criminals to the International Criminal Court. Definition of a 200-kilometer demilitarized zone from the borders of Ukraine.
6. Liberation of all Ukrainian territories. Separation of one or two subjects from the Russian Federation. One major subject of the Russian Federation has nuclear weapons.
The scenario is impossible in 2023. Change of power in Russia. Separation of one or two subjects of the Russian Federation and local military conflicts. The main power is concentrated in Moscow and forceful retention of power in the regions. The division of power is not in regions, but in military districts. Ukraine is a regional leader in Eastern Europe.
7. The liberation of all Ukrainian territories and the disintegration of the Russian Federation into more than three entities. One major subject of the Russian Federation has nuclear weapons.
The scenario is impossible in 2023. A complete change of the central government and the structure of regional government in Russia. National entities that separate from the Russian Federation are building their own vertical of power. Local military conflicts turn into a civil war of national republics against ethnic Russians. Western countries help maintain power and nuclear weapons in the part of Russia that will be governed by Moscow and St. Petersburg. Ukraine is the military and political leader of the region. The emergence of new military alliances with Ukraine among the leaders. Ukrainian specialists are sent to various government structures in the republics that seceded from the Russian Federation.
8. The liberation of all Ukrainian territories and the disintegration of the Russian Federation into more than three entities. Several subjects of the Russian Federation have nuclear weapons.
The scenario is disadvantageous for the collective West and Ukraine. The beginning of global instability. Negotiations with all holders of nuclear weapons.
9. The liberation of all Ukrainian territories and the chaotic collapse of the Russian Federation. Nuclear weapons in uncontrolled multiplayer.
The scenario of a possible start of a nuclear war on the planet. An attempt to build a new global security system. New global alliances on the planet.
10. Escalation of the conflict to other countries. Global war
50 underground factories and the anti-Putin coalition
THE STRUCTURE AND CONTROL OF PROPAGANDA IN PUTIN'S RUSSIA IN 2022
FIVE STEPS OF FRAGMENTATION OF RUSSIA, August 29, 2022
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES OF UKRAINE 2022, September 12, 2022
What will the war come to? June 6, 2022
Denys Bohush and the "8 owls" analytical group