Putin Again: Implications for Russia and the West
Philip Hanson, James Nixey, Lilia Shevtsova and Andrew Wood
Резюме на русском языке.
Vladimir Putin's return to the presidency is intended to preserve the ruling system he created in 2000. But the inability of the elite to cope with new social and economic pressures means that, in fact, continuity will endanger Russia 's stability.
The demonstrations following the elections are fuelled by wider grievances than electoral fraud. It is by no means certain that Putin would see out his full six-year term.
Change from within Russian society may come through as yet unseen professionals of the post-Soviet Russian generation. Failure to change could lead to disintegration which itself would be a blow to a future society based on liberal-democratic principles
Russia's economy is not yet in decline. But the indicators and inherent weaknesses – such as a reliance on energy prices, a falling demographic and corruption – suggest that decline is probable in the medium term.
Russia's foreign policy is weaker – less influential – than it has been at any time since the Yeltsin years. A lack of true friends and a default position of opposing the West at every turn give Russia poor returns for its loud voice on the international stage
The West should reassess its understanding of the nature and trajectory of Russia. Relationships should be based not upon the personal relationships between leaders, but upon a set of guiding principles based upon generally accepted international norms and values.
The Report will be launched at Chatham House today (Wednesday 29 February) between 13:00-14:00 GMT at a panel discussion involving all four authors. A live stream of the event will be available here and questions for the panel can be sent by email to firstname.lastname@example.org or using #askCH on Twitter. A selection of the questions will be put to the authors at the event. For an introduction to the report, listen to a podcast with co-author James Nixey.
Access the executive summary here.